Gene Expression Risk Scores for COVID-19 Illness Severity.

BACKGROUND: The correlates of COVID-19 illness severity following infection with SARS-Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are incompletely understood. METHODS: We assessed peripheral blood gene expression in 53 adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infection clinically adjudicated as having mild, moderate or severe disease. Supervised principal components analysis was used to build a weighted gene expression risk score (WGERS) to discriminate between severe and non-severe COVID. RESULTS: Gene expression patterns in participants with mild and moderate illness were similar, but significantly different from severe illness. When comparing severe versus non-severe illness, we identified >4000 genes differentially expressed (FDR<0.05). Biological pathways increased in severe COVID-19 were associated with platelet activation and coagulation, and those significantly decreased with T cell signaling and differentiation. A WGERS based on 18 genes distinguished severe illness in our training cohort (cross-validated ROC-AUC=0.98), and need for intensive care in an independent cohort (ROC-AUC=0.85). Dichotomizing the WGERS yielded 100% sensitivity and 85% specificity for classifying severe illness in our training cohort, and 84% sensitivity and 74% specificity for defining the need for intensive care in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that gene expression classifiers may provide clinical utility as predictors of COVID-19 illness severity.

Perceptions of Tobacco Product-Specific COVID-19 Risk and Changes in Tobacco Use Behaviors Among Smokers, E-Cigarette Users, and Dual Users.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a public health crisis, but its effects on tobacco users remain ill-defined. This report aimed to assess the relationship between tobacco product-specific risk perceptions for COVID-19 and changes in tobacco use since the start of the pandemic. METHODS: A sample (n = 776) of past-30 day exclusive smokers (n = 238), exclusive e-cigarette users (n = 143), and dual users (n = 395) residing in the US and aged 18 or older were collected using Mechanical Turk from April 27 to June 8, 2020. Adjusted associations between tobacco product-specific COVID-19 risk perceptions (ie risk that smokers/vapers are at for COVID-19 relative to non-smokers/non-vapers) and changes in tobacco use since the pandemic began were assessed using partial proportional odds models. RESULTS: A majority of those who used cigarettes (63.7%) and e-cigarettes (56.1%) felt that the risk of COVID-19 was greater for users of their tobacco product than for non-users. Twenty-four percent of smokers had increased their cigarette use since the start of the pandemic and 28.0% had decreased. Similarly, 27.3% of e-cigarette users had increased their e-cigarette use since the start of the pandemic and 23.8% had decreased. Higher risk perceptions for COVID-19 were associated with reductions in tobacco use since the pandemic began for exclusive e-cigarette users and dual users. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide the support that tobacco product-specific COVID-19 risk perceptions may be an important correlate of changes in tobacco use during the pandemic. Targeted information to inform tobacco users regarding their risks for COVID-19 is needed during this public health crisis. IMPLICATIONS: Few published studies have investigated the relationship between tobacco product-specific risk perceptions for COVID-19 and changes in tobacco product use since the pandemic began. This study enhances the current literature by providing evidence that higher tobacco product-specific risk perceptions for COVID-19 are associated with reductions in tobacco use since the pandemic began for exclusive e-cigarette users and dual users of cigarettes and e-cigarettes. Additionally, daily tobacco users may be more likely to have increased their tobacco use than non-daily users. These findings emphasize the importance of disseminating targeted health information to tobacco users regarding COVID-19 risks.

The association between statewide vaping prevalence and COVID-19.

Existing literature indicated electronic cigarette users (vapers) have impaired immune response that might increase vulnerability to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and death. However, whether vapers are more susceptible to COVID-19 is unknown. Using integrated data in each US state from the 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), United States Census Bureau and the 1Point3Acres.com website, generalized estimating equation (GEE) models with negative binomial distribution assumption and log link functions were used to examine the association of statewide e-cigarette use prevalence with number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US on a state level from January 21, 2020 to April 25, 2020. The weighted proportion of vapers who used e-cigarettes every day or some days ranged from 2.86% to 6.42% for US states. Statistically significant associations were observed between the weighted proportion of vapers and number of COVID-19 cases as well as COVID-19 deaths in the US after adjusting for the weighted proportion of smokers and other significant covariates in the GEE models. With every one percent increase in weighted proportion of vapers in each state, the number of COVID-19 cases increase by 0.3139 (95% CI: 0.0554-0.5723) and the number of COVID-19 deaths increase by 0.3730 (95% CI: 0.0815-0.6646) in log scale in each US state. The positive associations between the proportion of vapers and the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in each US state in this ecological study suggest an increased susceptibility of vapers to COVID-19 on a state level and warrants further investigation.